Post-Selection Instrumental Variables with Invalid Instruments in a Multi-Group Setting, and an Application to the Returns to Education | WIP Seminar with Harry Krashinsky
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Meeting ID: 869 5948 1348
Abstract: Most instrumental variable (IV) models exploit variation in instruments across both time and broadly defined “groups”, such as geographic divisions. Furthermore, although these types of studies consider the relevant assumptions of IV models – (1) a strong first stage and (2) no violations of the exclusion restriction – across their pooled data, virtually none examine these assumptions within groups. This study will outline a novel application of existing models from statistics to propose a “Post-Selection IV estimator” (PSIV) which limits the IV analysis to groups that meet the IV assumptions. The PSIV estimator will then be used to estimate the monetary return to a year of education. Recent evidence suggests that this monetary return is close to zero, but the PSIV evidence will describe the problematic nature of the evidence in the literature, and show that an additional year of education causally raises earnings by approximately 10 percentage points.
Bio: Harry Krashinsky is Associate Professor of Economics in the Department of Management at the University of Toronto Scarborough. He holds a cross-appointment to the Centre for Industrial Relations and Human Resources. Prof. Krashinsky's research currently focuses on labour economics, including wage inequality and differentials, the impact of training and accreditation on earnings, self-employment and job loss. He also pursues topics that apply econometric methods to wide-ranging policy issues, including the determinants of teen pregnancy and causes of variation in voting participation rates. He teaches courses at the undergraduate and graduate levels in labour economics and research methods.
Our CIRHR Work-In-Progress Seminar series allows members of our community to discuss early-stage research. Future guest speakers include:
- The Gender Wage Gap and Redistribution
April 10, Kourtney Koebel, CIRHR Sessional Lecturer